Eternal Sunshine of the Bomb Iran Mind
All signs point to an imminent American bombing attack on Iran, ostensibly in support of protestors challenging the regime. Such a military intervention in search of regime change has long been a fantasy for Iran hawks. We've been debating this all purpose policy demand for all seasons since at least the late 2000s, impervious to any lessons that might be drawn from Iraq or Libya or any other time it's been tried. Nonetheless, with Trump high on his own supply (what he sees as success in Venezuala and six months ago in Iran) and the Iranian protests offering up a seeming opportunity to push the Iranian regime over the brink, this may finally be their moment.
In my new piece for Foreign Policy, bluntly entitled "Why an American Attack on Iran Would Backfire", I argue that the bombing isn't really about promoting democracy. I think we all know how much Donald Trump cares about democracy; there's a tremendously bitter irony in Trump lambasting Iranian regime forces for their violence against their protestors at the exact same moment that his own regime forces are committing violence against American protestors. I expect that a bombing campaign would probably aim to degrade the repressive capabilities of the Iranian state in hopes of encouraging protestors to overthrow the regime.
A decapitation strike like the one that killed Hassan Nasrallah is unlikely and a longer campaign targetting domestic repressive capacity is full of problems. I argue that American air strikes are more likely to demobilize the protests than accelerate them, and if the regime fell an IRGC takeover is more likely than a restoration of the Baby Shah or the spontaneous emergence of the democracy which Iranians deserve. Finally, I highlight Saudi and wider Gulf skepticism about the whole thing – especially in light of their clear concerns about Israeli expansionism and recent turn against Israel-aligned UAE.
There's a tremendous amount of contingency in these situations, of course. Most real Iran experts these days are expressing a great deal of uncertainty and humility about how things could tip in either direction. But I strongly doubt that a US bombing campaign will improve the odds of good things or mitigate the risks of bad things.
Read the whole article here:
Much more likely is a short to medium-length campaign to degrade the capabilities of the IRGC and the paramilitary Basij force in order to reduce the repressive capacity of the Iranian state and create an opening for protesters to overwhelm the remaining regime forces. That wouldn’t be as easy in reality as it is on social media. Regime security forces tend to be deployed where the protesters are these days. Bombing security forces will necessarily kill many protesters and scatter the rest for fear of being targeted. Another bombing run against nuclear sites may serve counterproliferation goals but won’t do much to embolden protesters. Given the tendency of Iranians to rally around the flag when bombed by the United States and Israel, the most likely effect of a non-decapitation bombing campaign would be to taper off the protests and ultimately end them.
And...
U.S. military action right now is unlikely to topple the Iranian regime and unlikely to protect Iranian civilians. Even if Trump’s run of good luck in his foreign-policy gambles continues and the worst potential repercussions are avoided, the strikes will likely have only a marginal direct effect. They will increase Gulf fears of Israeli expansionism, delegitimize and demobilize the protesters confronting the regime, and further normalize episodic military action without legal justification. They may also undermine global support for the sanctions that, for all the human misery they have caused, have also been a primary driver of the economic failures and state capacity degradation that triggered the protests in the first place.
I expect I'll have more to say about all this soon, sadly. Read "Why an American Attack on Iran Would Backfire" here (no paywall).
Also, please to read America's Middle East: The Ruination of a Region for the broader perspective on why the US keeps doing this sort of thing.
The Middle East and North Africa Politics Section of the American Political Science Association (APSA) seeks nominations for several awards recognizing exceptional contributions to the field that integrate the study of the politics of the Middle East and North Africa with the broader discipline of Political Science: Best Book, Best Article, Best Dissertation, Best APSA Paper. Consistent with the values expressed in the Section’s diversity statement, work utilizing any methodological, theoretical, and empirical tools will be considered. All nominations must be submitted by February 1, 2026, to be considered. Winners will be selected by a committee and announced at the MENA Politics reception at the 2026 APSA Annual Conference. Follow the instructions at the link and submit to apsamena@gmail.com.
