Israel can't bomb its way to hegemony
My new article for Foreign Affairs (no paywall) argues that Israel's belief that its unchecked air campaign bombing Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran with impunity can be the path to regional hegemony is a dangerous fantasy. Hegemony requires more than just military dominance – and even the military dominance isn't quite what it appears to be. Israel could use the Gaza ceasefire (or what's left of it) to pivot towards cooperating with its potential regional partners by backing away from its aggressive military approach and working towards a Palestinian state, but there's very little sign that it has any intention of doing so.
Here's the introduction:
"Israel’s mistaken belief that the country has established permanent strategic superiority over its adversaries will almost certainly lead it to take increasingly provocative actions that directly challenge the goals of the White House. The Gulf states that Israel dreams of bringing into its fold doubt that it is willing or able to protect their core interests. They are now less concerned about confronting Iran—and less convinced that the road to Washington leads through Tel Aviv. And Israel seems not to grasp the extent of Trump’s affinities with the Gulf states."
"An attack in the Gulf, however, has proved to be a surprising turning point. Israel’s shocking attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders gathered for U.S.-brokered negotiations in Doha in September represented a dramatic escalation of its bid to reshape the Middle East by airpower. That was the kind of gambit undertaken only by leaders completely convinced of their immunity from the consequences of their actions. But Trump decided that this time, Israel had gone too far. The indelible image of a scowling Trump watching Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sheepishly read a scripted apology on a phone call to the emir of Qatar seems emblematic of the shifting geopolitical moment that led to the initial cease-fire in Gaza."
....
"Israel cannot bomb the Middle East into a stable new order. Regional leadership requires more than military primacy. It also demands some degree of consent and cooperation from other regional powers. But nobody in the Middle East wants Israeli leadership, and all states now increasingly fear its unchecked might. Some in Washington celebrate the prospect of an unrestrained Israel laying waste to U.S. adversaries. But they should be careful what they wish for. Israel’s interests are not the same as those of the United States—and Israel is writing a lot of checks that the United States might not be willing or able to cash."
Read the whole article at Foreign Affairs.
I'm thrilled that Oxford University Press has published the US edition of my new book America's Middle East a month early. I'm not sure when the hardover ships, but the Kindle version can be downloaded now – and it's half price right now at Amazon. Please get it now if you want to read it – early orders really help to push books up in the sales rankings which can get the more attention from new readers. Half price eb0ok here.
If you're in DC, please come see my book launch at the Elliott School on Wednesday at noon. I'm really excited to present the book at my home institution, and hope to see lots of you there! RSVP here!
